Political Strategist Tracy Davis

Mitt Romney is the “almost candidate.” He can’t quite convince the Conservative base of the Republican Party that he is a conservative even though many would like to get this race on some kind of track get behind one candidate at some point in the near future, as they ponder the horror of 3 candidates (actually for Ron Paul l will definitely rack up some delegates but just not enough to be a contender) splitting up the delegates at just the amount that no one feels any need to bow out and yet no one receives the majority.

The RNC might kick itself for imposing its new rule that all delegates are won on a percentage basis until the month of April -which besides prolonging the race (clearly something they thought was a GOOD idea at the time), it also baffles everyone including the candidates as to why Florida was “winner take all” although it lost half of its delegates by holding its race in January. Make sense? Of course not. It didn’t to Gingrich either, who threatened to sue for his proportion of the Florida delegates, although when he was winning in the polls he seemed perfectly happy with the winner take all Florida delegate policy. But, that mix-up is indicative of the race in general- its like a see-saw and there are many, many GOP voters who still cannot decide who to vote for, endorse, or support.

The other reason, besides the delegate delegated on percentages and state punishments and mix-ups in Missouri where they hold a beauty contest one month and doll out a whopping x amount of delegates doing the exact same process all over again the next month- is the new rule over super-pacs being allowed to receive donations where the sky is the limit for their candidate of choice, although that candidate can have no contact with these super pacs and no communication, influence, or anything to do with the ads these monsters put out to the airwaves on radio and TV.

The good old American way, or a way to buy an election? This, believe it or not, brings me back to Mitt Romney and his “almost” problem. In an interview with Hannity this evening-he explained fairly well that he had the same religious policy towards catholic churches in the Massachusetts health care law before he took office. He fought to remove these mandates and was defeated by the legislature (mass is notorious for being a prominently liberal state) which was a democrat majority. When mandates were passed about morning after and stem cell research while Romney was in office, he rejected vetoed them and the legislature overrode his veto. Phew! That is really good news for Romney, and the conservatives who do support him, cutting to the knees his opponents strategy of using this hot, volatile all-over-the-news issue of outrage over Obama care infringing on certain American’s religious beliefs as well as individuals liberty’s by forcing the Catholic church to provide the pill etc to their employees in their health care packages that you and I as the taxpayers are paying for.

But, Romney is squeaking by this one-because, thanks to Gingrich and Santorum attacks along with the basic facts- Romney care and Obama care remind the voter of one another-like they are kissing cousins-and the example this Catholic church fight with the current administration is indicative, to many people, of the over-reach by Obama care in the years to come on many levels as it gets fully implemented (“we’ve only just begun” I can here Obama whistling as he brushes his teeth before bed) and that scares people -really scares people-just like it did in 2010 when half the country practically went into revolt against it and Reid, Pelosi, and Obama put on earphones and blinders and rammed it through anyway. “Those people just hang onto their guns and religion anyway..}  So Mitt isn’t out of the woods-he still seems a little bit too close to the Big O for comfort.

Then (back to Hannity) when asked three specific questions about foreign policy, Romney had the chance to provide three specific answers to let the viewers know he HAS specific policies. Admittedly, if I were asked these questions, I’d run away and hide. They were a little tough.

1. What would you do about the crisis in Syria?

2. Iran is upping the ante with its nuclear weapon threat-what is the solution?

3. Americans are being kept in Egypt against their will and the situation is getting more serious by the day. What would you do as President.

“Well, Sean” (I am paraphrasing) “America needs to maintain a strong military and this President has weakened our country’s image throughout the world and …” Very general. Nothing new.

Romney has been heavily criticized by both candidates the last few days, but especially Santorum, with his pockets full of slingshots he got from Santa Claus for being a good boy. (Don’t over-do the Bella card, Rick Baby, you don’t need to mention her in every speech. We know you’re a family guy who loves the Lord. Don’t over-do THAT either or people will start calling you Tim.}  So Romney took the time on Hannity to lob some criticisms back- things we as voters ought to think about or at least confirm such as voting to raise the debt ceiling 5 times with no reduction of Federal spending which grew 80% while he was a Senator,  earmarks (kook we know that) and… well that’s about it. good job, Opposition Research team on Romney Campaign. You have two hundred thousand pages on Gingrich and 2 sentences on Santorum? These are not the actual numbers.

The creme de la creme was the very last part of the interview when Hannity asked if his wife was taking a few days off “Yes, she has MS and needs a break but is coming back to Michigan early to see her friends and campaign around the state while I hop around the country campaigning and raising money.” Ugh. Really? You idiot! Why would you say that? The issue of Romney and his money to slice up his opponents like a Chinese Samurari leaving the dead in the water is just not something he needs to bring up. Perhaps, “While I continue on my mission to go around this great country of ours and get to know as many people as possible, hear their concerns, and hopefully prove to them by outlining my vision of America’s future, that I am the one that would make the best President of the United States – and ask them for their vote to help me get there.”

Nope “hopping around the country (image-jet) to raise some money (image dirty money and “Hey don’t you already have enough of that?” Will Mitt ever learn?

Michigan and Arizona could put Romney back on top before Super Tuesday- He is very strong in both but he has to change his strategy and not be so lofty- he has to actually talk to the voters instead of just holding rallies and he can’t just say “I will change America” etc he has to talk about specifics and he has to somehow diminish the image of being cold and out of touch-His “I don’t care about the poor” hurt him more than “I like firing people’ but what is really hurting him now is the outrage happening over Obama’s over reach into the Catholic institutions, forcing them to cover their employees with insurance for birth control which is against their religion. This issue coming into the American spotlight  a major problem for Obama and has out national attention on just one aspect of Obama Care that the American people have and still are so concerned about -its over-reaching into people’s choices and in this case against religion. But the bad news for Romney too (very bad news) is that his health care plan is very similar to Obama’s and since this is the big news nation-wide right now it gives Santorum and Gingrich ammunition

The perception of infringement upon American people’s lives and also a  threat to religious liberty makes it a potent issue for republicans and a huge problem for the President. The momentum of the President with good economic numbers has been over shadowed by this very strong issue of stomping on religious freedom which makes many Americans nervous – a huge political mistake and miscalculation of Obama and it is so damaging and it augments two stereotypes that Obama is anti-religious and the idea of intrusive large government which caused the rebellion on 2010 – it shows in a concrete way how Obama-care intrudes in your life, institutions and the very American fabric and Romney is a little too close to this issue and so Obama and Romney are going to be very hurt politically by this ongoing issue while it receives so much press.

Gingrich painting Romney as very close to Obama on many issues is starting to un-nerve Americans just as Romney’s attacks on Gingrich as the typical Washington DC insider who makes money as a lobbyist for Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac and others but, particularly those two (since they are seen as the cause of the economic meltdown) when Obama took office as well as they are known to be supported solely by taxpayers money so that is another very sore issue.

These brutal attacks have caused a lingering distaste for the top two candidates meanwhile the family man leaves them to duke it out, bows out of Florida and Nevada and comes back as the true conservative Mr. Clean-old fashioned, and in the last two days his money chest has skyrocketed as he now has to decide exactly which states to choose to concentrate on and win- This has been his strategy from the beginning- the minute he left FL he was out west far before the other candidates spending quality time with the voters for days at a time. He takes is Iowa approach with him and skips the states he can’t win and sticks to the smaller states that he can- and this strategy is working brilliantly for him.

Gingrich is waiting until Super Tuesday and concentrating on the states holding primaries them. This is a very risky approach and reminds me of when Guilliani waited until Florida to get into the race 4 yrs ago and was dead in the water from the start-although before Iowa and New Hampshire he was the favorite. Gingrich needs to remake himself fast and not just count on Georgia which has 76 delegates, Ohio which is a crucial swing state and has 66 and is a Super Tuesday State, Tennessee-58 delegates- and yet Gingrich and Santorum made the terrible mistake of not getting on the ballot in Virginia- not either of them-basically handing 49 delegates to Romney

Romney is injured and although the split between Gingrich and Santorum helps him – it does gage the nation’s mood as not much enthusiasm for Romney and the shrugged shoulders acceptance that his money and organization might outlast his opponents and then he will be the nominee because an anti Romney candidate just didn’t have the goods to defeat him. How Robot Romney overcomes this perception is unknown to me- it is there and it is real.

The race is a three-way with no one having a particular advantage at this point -Santorum has the momentum and money is flowing towards him (half mill in last 2 days) Gingrich can rise again and must be biting at the bit for the next debate which isn’t until Feb 22- giving Santorum plenty of time to bask in the glory of his new image as a viable serious candidate not to be dismissed and one who has the conservative steady family value Mr. Cleaver, Mr. Rogers neighborhood image. Mitt has a lot of work to do and Gingrich and Mitt should make a truce because negative campaigning can destroy and leave the candidate fatally wounded while Obama stands on the sidelines with the Presidential Seal and American flags as his escorts.

Take a higher road. Or at least act like you are. As I said from the start- you can attack with ads but watch your mouth- no one likes an angry, easily rattled candidate.

Newt is out of line of fire for Romney but it was a disaster for Gingrich nevertheless. Santorum better hold his hat because that negative ad money machine of Romney’s is taking aim. We will hear the word earmark so much from now on it will drive everyone crazy. But Romney IS a machine so what do you expect?

Three states in America’s heartland-the mid-west showed that they have a thing or two to say about America and what kind of President they want. Why? Because the Mitt Romney and the Newt Gingrich strategies worked  a little too well and they succeeded in their goal of destroying each other.

Tonight the voters spoke. Rick Santorum stayed out of the-fast low-blow spray of deadly bullets exchanged between Romney and Gingrich and has run his race the old fashioned way: by earning it. Santorum practically lived in Iowa and ended up winning with no money or organization. He lost New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida but, as Newt and Mitt battled out South Carolina and Florida, Santorum had moments of sunshine in the debates. In addition, he was always consistent, he had passion, he stood by his beliefs even when they weren’t popular. Santorum didn’t get involved in bashing Romney over Bain Capitol jumping onto the Vulture Capitol bandwagon and he stayed above the fray while the two front runners left a feeling of distaste and almost nausea as we learned, through their accusations about one another (who knows which ones are true which ones are false).

Between Gingrich’s reaction to the Nevada loss in that surreal press conference pounding in to the heads of the American people and an image of a failed Massachusetts moderate who is pro abortion, pro tax increase, and was the role model for Obama care (all very much over-the-top and certainly harmful to the front-runner of this wild ride of a GOP race), Santorum has emerged as a healthy alternative and the true “conservative” of the GOP.

A Presidential campaign to crush an opponent with negative ads is a bit sickening to all of us – almost as much as the opponent’s reaction with relentless deadly shark attacks that it just almost came too much to hear anymore of it.  Rick resonated to the caucus voters in Minnesota, Missouri, and maybe even Colorado (too close right now) by running an election like the way Americans ought to run their lives and like elected officials ought to run the government: with humility, with family first values, and honest consistent principles. This is the exact reason many Americans in the fast-track world of the east coast cities never took the guy seriously- he was just a bit too apple pie with a sweater vest.

Running a campaign without an exploding money chest (even Gingrich had 6 mill or so the poor thing) or Gingrich’s nation name recognition – a long climb.

Gingrich’s urges some subtle some not- for Santorum to leave the race so Gingrich could pick up the anti-Romney drum roll- seemed plausible but, Santorum wouldn’t give up and argued Santorum was much the better real anti-Romney candidate and he was judged to have won the 2nd debate in Florida (he was brilliant in that debate). So between Rick’s performance in that debate and the fact that it came out he won Iowa (not much of an effect) could those two factors cause these wins tonight? No. It has to be a negative reaction of the people to the negativity of the front-runners campaigns.

Mitt’s comment that “I’m not really concerned about the poor” no matter what context- added to a feeling of distaste for the Republican fight thus far and Santorum appeared to be the one who had a clean closet and honest, consistent principles and the backbone to fight for them.

Isn’t that perfect that this would take place in the mid west? With Little House on the Prairie and the image of simple rugged real Americans living on their farms or working in the mills (or skiing) in the clear prairies and mountains-going for the simplicity of a candidate that they can understand and that hasn’t emerged as damaged goods with a list of things to explain about his past?

This is a very small part of the electorate but, maybe Romney and Gingrich could take a little notice: it doesn’t take a billion dollars to win a state and it doesn’t take ripping your opponent to shreds. Santorum will definitely get momentum and recognition as the potential anti-Romney candidate and that is huge when it comes to the rest of the campaign.

Santorum can expect a much easier time raising money and he has three weeks to do just that. Santorum will have a tough time in Michigan and Arizona (heavily Romney) but, he will have time to prepare. The next debate is in two weeks and the next state primaries (Arizona, Michigan) are in three. This is great for Santorum because he is the perceived winner and has the momentum. It’s bad for Gingirch because he has lost his crown as the Romney challenger and as one of the two front runners (Newt or Mitt? Mitt or Newt? Those days are officially gone. Rick can make the argument he is at least the equal as the speaker in the anti-Romney game.

Romney needs Gingrich to stay in the race now-an ironic twist to keep the anti-Romney vote split. Santorum can expect the money guns from Romney aimed on him but, perhaps not- after all Rick seems pretty squeaky clean and Romney’s job now is to balance the victories of Gingrich and Santorum so they inevitably cancel each other out. If they both stay in the race, neither can defeat Romney.